24 April 2012

Conmflict Trends #1: Real-Time Analysis of African Political Violence, April 2012


This conflict trend report from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) is the first of what will be a monthly report focused on regional conflict trends within Africa. The analysis concentrates on recent political violence emanating from the Sahel belt and East Africa, due to the rise in instability there. Focus countries include Kenya, Mali, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, and Somalia. The report provides a brief summary of conflict activity in Burundi, DR-Congo and Niger.

Real-time data on select Sahelian and Central African cases is available for review, and will be expanded to the entire continent. In addition to a focus on conflict events of the last three months, baseline analysis highlights the conflict patterns across several countries of interest over a longer period. The report compares present conflict outbreaks with the recent past, highlight new conflict actors and locations within states, and suggest explanations for the conflict processes. Analyses examine levels of violence, fatality rates, actors involved and locations of conflict.